An NFL Draft Blog

An NFL Draft Blog
Formerly known as the player rater.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Cincinnati Bengals- 2010 Draft Review

My hometown team (though not my favorite team) had a solid draft, but I am getting bored of the team drafting thug after thug after thug after thug. This year the Bengals drafted 3 players with some character concerns (Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Gresham, Dezmon Briscoe) and I've got to say I am getting sick of it. You may notice I didn't write anything about Gresham. He missed the season with a knee injury, and I never got to see the guy. But I still thought they had a decent draft.

Carlos Dunlap
Dunlap has too many physical tools to be a second round pick and deserve it. At 278lbs and 4.58 yard dash, this guy should have gotten 20 sacks his Junior season. But he puts no effort onto the field and he has very little dedication to the game (see: DUI arrest before SEC championship game that got him arrested). But god his physical tools are truly only matched by Mario Williams. It's awful that he has underachieved so much throughout his career. But Dunlap has solid value at pick 54.

Jordan Shipley
Shipley doesn't have a lot of physical tools, but he is simply outstanding with everything else. He has great hands, he is a great route runner, he has great vision, he is a great kick returner, and he plays really hard. But he is pretty slow, he doesn't have a lot of size, and he has a really low ceiling as a receiver. I see a whole lot of Jordy Nelson in Shipley and I think this was a pretty good pick.

Brandon Ghee
Wake Forest
Ghee isn't very productive, but he has tremendous upside. Ghee is very fast and athletic, but he is totally overaggressive and he is a pretty raw player. He also has pretty poor instincts, he isn't a very physical corner, and he is a mediocre tackler. But, overall, it wasn't a bad pick. But not a great one either.

Geno Atkins
Atkins has a nice combination of great straight line speed, he is a solid pass rusher he has good athleticism, and good strength. But he is awfully small, he isn't really productive, he puts little effort onto the field at times (despite having a very high grade point average). Excellent value at pick 120.

Roddrick Muckelroy
Muckelroy is really limited in terms of athleticism and physical tools, he isn't a hard hitter, but he is solid in every other category. He has great instincts, he is a great tackler, he plays hard, he is very productive, and he has good awareness in coverage. But Muckelroy has a really low ceiling. Decent value at pick 131.

Dezmon Briscoe
Briscoe has decent athleticism, good size, and lots of production, but he just doesn't put a lot of effort onto the field. He is a very poor blocker who isn't very tough over the middle. But he is a great route runner with good strength and decent hands. I am pretty surprised that he fell this far, but overall it was an excellent pick for the Bengals.

Chicago Bears-2010 Draft Review

Not a very productive draft. The Bears got very little value for their picks, considering how terribly Jay Cutler turned out. Though they didn't have any picks until the third round, they did get okay value for those picks. But they got such little in return for the first and second round picks they traded (Gaines Adams, who they got for their second round pick, passed away), that overall they got very little value for their picks.

Major Wright
Major Wright is an okay player, but their are some issues with Wright. The main thing I noticed is that his tackling technique is awful. He lunges at a player instead of trying to wrap up. That's great for killing a player (see:, but he frequently just whiffs. It's pretty volatile. But he has good athleticism, and he is somewhat productive (except for this year). Okay pick here.

Corey Wootton
Wootton was injured all year, and his performance really suffered. It took him weeks to get his first sack of the season, for he had an ankle injury. His football speed is simply awful, and his 40 is pretty week anyway. But he plays really hard, and historically his stats are great. He was supposed to be a second round pick heading into the year, but he just had an off year. Decent value this late.

Dan LeFevour
Central Michigan
Pretty good value at pick 181. LeFevour has lots of grit, mobility, and arm strength that really made him arguably the most successful quarterback in MAC history (and there have been good MAC quarterback's over the years, such as Ben Roethlisberger). I actually see some of Roethlisberger's ability to escape pressure and fight for every yard in LeFevour. But, Lefevour is a little erratic, he has some decision making issues, and his accuracy is mediocre.

Carolina Panthers- 2010 Draft Review

The Panthers draft was more lucky than good, but it they did find great value with their picks. Most analysts when grading a team's draft grade how smart they were with their picks. The Panthers were lucky, as they possessed the common sense to make every obvious choice they could make. The team got great value for their picks. I never saw David Gettis, but the combine suggested high upside (6'3, 4.47 40 yard dash), and decent potential that late in the draft. I never saw Armanti Edwards, but he was a pretty bad pick.

Jimmy Clausen
Notre Dame
Clausen falling here has got to be the best value of any pick in the draft. Clausen makes great decisions with the football and he has exceptional throwing accuracy. He is also very productive, and he is an ideal fit for the Panthers offense, which is identical to the one at Notre Dame. I cannot believe that he fell this far, but it was great value for the Panthers.

Brandon LaFell
Louisiana State
LaFell was solid value this at pick 78. He has great size, but he lacks speed and his production was mediocre at best this year (his production was probably poor because of poor quarterback play, though). But he has good size and separation ability. Steve Smith can't be the only receiver on the team, and LaFell's size is a perfect complement to Smith's speed. A decent pick here.

Eric Norwood
South Carolina
Norwood was a decent, albeit weird pick. Norwood is best for the 3-4 defense, as a rush linebacker. I was pretty surprised that a team that ran a 4-3 defense picked Norwood, but he was pretty good value this late in the draft. Norwood is instinctive, productive, and relentless in pursuit. But he is pretty short, he has mediocre strength, speed, and athleticism. An okay pick here.

Greg Hardy
Hardy isn't very committed to the game of football. When he can keep his weight down (at the beginning of the season, he was listed at 260lbs, but now he is a good 280lbs), he has legit first round talent with a 4.61 40 yard dash and the strength to be a great 4-3 pass rushing end, with a little Dwight Freeney inside of him. When he doesn't feel like putting effort onto the field, he isn't a prospect worth drafting. If the Panthers think they can motivate him, he could be a solid player. A pretty good pick here.

Tony Pike
Pike is simply a system quarterback who has stats that are only good because he played under Brian Kelly. Truly, he doesn't have a lot of arm strength, his accuracy is average at best, and he is quite susceptible to injuries. But he does make pretty good decisions with the football. Pretty good value this late in the draft

Buffalo Bills- 2010 Draft Review

Mediocre draft, but it could have been worse. Torell Troup was an awful pick, I never even saw the guy play. I never saw Carrington, but he wasn't a bad pick. I never saw him because he plays at Arkansas State. It's a small school, after all. Every other pick wasn't too bad. Arthur Moats was pretty interesting, as he provides an ideal fit for the 3-4 outside linebacker position.

C.J. Spiller
Spiller was an excellent pick IF the Bills plan on getting rid of Marshawn Lynch or starting Spiller. If the Bills plan on using a two headed monster at running back, then they made a bad pick here. A two headed monster at running back won't do any good if there is no people to block for them. If they are going to use a two starting running backs, then they should have drafted Anthony Davis or Bryan Bulaga here. But I think this is a good pick though. Spiller is a shifty explosive gamebreaker who can score any time he touches the football. A fine pick here.

Marcus Easley
A pretty good pick here. Easley has more physical tools than any former walk on in the draft, with a nice blend of a 4.39 40 yard dash and his 6'3 stature. From what I have seen, Easley puts a fairly high amount of effort out onto the field from what I have seen, but he is still statistically an underachiever. Why? He was a former walk on, and he once said that he wasn't sure if the coach knew his name through Sophomore year. It sounds like he received such little attention from the coaching staff that he is simply a very raw prospect. But he works hard, and he has excellent physical tools. Good value at pick 107.

Ed Wang
Virginia Tech
The first Chinese player ever drafted, Wang provides an above average set of physical tools for a player drafted this late in the draft, but he doesn't play with a lot of toughness or intensity. But he has long arms, good athleticism, and solid strength. A fine pick here.

Kyle Calloway
Calloway plays hard, he is a good run blocker, but he brings no physical tools to the table. Calloway does not have the physical tools to be a tackle and in the NFL, and if he wants to play at all, he will have to switch to guard. A fine pick.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Baltimore Ravens- 2010 Draft Review

The Ravens had an outstanding draft. They found solid value with all of their picks. One player I never saw was Ramon Harewood. But after finding out a little about Harewood, the guy is interesting. 6'6, 341lbs, good athleticism (5.18 40 yard dash) equals outstanding potential. If the Ravens could develop him, he could be the next Jared Gaither (who also plays for the Ravens, and is huge, at 6'9, 340lbs). But onto the players I saw:

Sergio Kindle
Kindle has an abundance of talent but a few warranted durability concerns. He is fast, strong, and he has the instincts to be a great blitzing 3-4 outside linebacker with many sacks. But he did tear up his knee a few years ago. Outside linebacker is a position of need with no proven player to play outside Terrell Suggs (Jarret Johnson was okay last year, but Kindle would be an immediate improvement). Many people were surprised (including me) that Kindle fell past round 1, but I must concede that the injury concerns are warranted. Overall, it was a very good pick for the Ravens.

Terrence Cody
Cody is a very overrated player, but in most people's opinion, this was a good pick. His stats are horrible (no career sacks, 51 career tackles), he really struggles to keep his weight down (he has weighed as much as 372lbs), and he lacks athleticism and strength. Nose tackle isn't a position of need (Haloti Ngata), but he does provide some depth. But I hate Cody as a player and I don't think he will ever be a decent player. Overall, this was the only pick the Ravens made that I really didn't like.

Ed Dickson
Dickson was a good pick here. Todd Heap is on the decline, and Dickson is an athletic pass catcher who is somewhat productive. He is fast, he plays hard, and he can catch. Heap is getting old, and he hasn't been as productive lately. The Ravens really lack depth at the tight end position (backup L.J. Smith caught two passes last year). A fine pick here.

Dennis Pitta
Brigham Young
I was surprised that Baltimore drafted another tight end, and it wasn't a great idea, but Pitta is a good player, with some Dallas Clark in him. He has great hands, good size, he plays hard, he has solid athleticism, and he is quite productive. Overall, it was a pretty weird pick, but Pitta is a good player.

Arthur Jones
Jones isn't very productive, and he has a whole lot of durability issues. Maybe the most injuries of any player in this year's draft class. But he has good value in round 5. Believe it or not, before the injuries he was looking like a mid-to late to late first round pick. So he provides pretty good value this late in the draft.

Atlanta Falcons- 2010 Draft Review

I must say, I didn't really like the Falcons draft. Picking Joseph Hawley and Corey Peters as high as they did was definitely a mistake (I never saw those two play. During the season, neither of them looked like 5th round prospects, and though Peters got hot toward his pro day, Hawley shouldn't have really been drafted). Johnson was one of the more overrated players in this year's draft class, as he possesses no athleticism and a motor that is adequate at best.

Sean Weatherspoon
Sean Weatherspoon was a solid pick. He provides excellent physical tools, solid instincts, and a high motor to the Falcons defense. At the combine, he showcased his physical tools with good 4.57 40 yard dash and doing 34 bench reps at the combine, most among linebackers. He also plays with a high motor and he has the versatility to play inside linebacker as well as outside linebacker. A solid pick here and decent value at pick 19.

Mike Johnson
Johnson is a pretty overrated prospect who doesn't have much athleticism, strength, or intensity. His production is overrated, and at the combine he showed no physical tools, running the slowest 40 yard dash among guards, and having the 2nd shortest arms of all guards at the combine. A very overrated player and a reach at pick 98

Kerry Meier
Meier has marginal athleticism, but he has everything else. Good size, high effort, good production, and great hands. But he is so slow, that he might need to add bulk and become a tight end if he wants any success at the next level.

You may notice I didn't write a scouting report on Dominique Franks. Well, he said he wouldn't come out for the draft, so I didn't scout him. But he changed his mind at the last second, but by then it was too late. Franks wasn't really a bad pick.

Arizona Cardinals- 2010 Draft Review

I wasn't able to see every draft prospect this year, so I can't analyze every pick that every team made. I decided that during my first year I would only scout players who were likely to be picked in the first five rounds. In the Cardinals case, I never saw Jorrick Calvin and Jim Dray. But I will analyze every other pick that the Cardinals made.

Dan Williams
Williams was an excellent pick because he fills a great need at nose tackle (their starter would be Gabe Watson, who is a mediocre player), and he provides great value at pick 26. Williams has top 20 talent but he often doesn't put a great effort onto the field and all of the teams who picked before the Cardinals either didn't run a 3-4 defense or didn't need a nose tackle. Williams has excellent size, strength, and the potential to be a prototypical 3-4 nose tackle at the NFL level. But he puts up marginal stats and really struggles to keep his weight down.

Daryl Washington
Texas Christian
Washington was an excellent pick here because he could probably immediately fill the void left at inside linebacker after Karlos Dansby's departure for Miami. Washington is more than an ideal fit at 3-4 inside linebacker because, coming into the draft, he was sort of on the border of being a outside linebacker or an inside linebacker in a 4-3 defense. Falling into a 3-4 is perfect because in a 3-4 defense the outside linebackers often blitz. During these plays he provides the versatility to shift from his normal assignment as an inside linebacker to the normal assignment of an outside linebacker (see: Sean Weatherspoon). So he is a perfect fit for the 3-4 defense, and he provides pretty good value at pick 47.

Andre Roberts
The Citadel
Roberts is a productive player who is among the most NFL ready wide receivers in this year's draft class. At 5'11, he lacks adequate NFL size but he has above average speed and he is among the best route runners of all the players in this year's draft class. He also shows deceptive elusiveness and excellent hands. Solid value at pick 88.

O'Brien Schoefield
Schoefield is decent value at pick 130, but Schoefield scared/confused me at the NFL combine. During Senior Bowl week, he said he was going to lose weight and try to be a linebacker for once (good), but then he blew out his knee and couldn't play in the Senior Bowl or participate in the NFL combine. Schoefield losing weight was a good idea at the start, for most of his potential is at 3-4 outside linebacker (even though he is pretty raw at that position), but the average weight of a player at that position is around 239. Schoefield showed up at the combine at ... 221lbs? I don't know why he did this, but at this point in his career, Schoefield is a defensive end in a free safety's body. At that weight, Schoefield will not even be an adequate backup at the NFL level.

John Skelton
Skelton was an excellent pick. He has JaMarcus Russell like physical upside and he has put up excellent numbers at Fordham. After watching him in the East West Shrine Game, I could tell that he has the best throw power of anyone I have ever seen (excluding Brett Favre), but he looked very weak minded and he showed no leadership ability on the field. It looked like, now that he was playing against better players, that he was scared out of his mind and he had to compulsively laser every pass until they were too hot to handle for his wide receivers. And he never really communicated with his teammates, never congratulating them for making a nice catch, or yelling at them for dropping his passes. Overall, he doesn't really come across as passionate about the game, but if the Cardinals can really develop him, he could be a great player for years to come. Good value at pick 155.

Friday, May 28, 2010


Player-efficiency rating. It's been created for Basketball (John Hollinger for ESPN developed "PER"). Quarterback rating was developed many years ago for football. What about baseball? In baseball, no stat has dominated in the measure of a player's overall production. Why? Everything has either been too complicated (see: Bill James) or simply inefficient. That's when I, decided I would create the stat "Offensive-efficiency rating." Before I explain the stat, let me give all the readers some background on the lesser known baseball stats.

Slugging percentage is TB/AB. TB stands for "total bases", meaning all the bases accumulated from a player's hits. For example, a single and a homer is five TB, for a player goes 1 base on a single and 4 bases on a homer. AB obviously stands for at bat. On paper, the idea of the amount of bases per at bat makes a lot of sense as an overall player rater. But the main issue with slugging percentage is the fact that it is too harsh on the leadoff man. A leadoff man like Michael Bourn has very low slugging percentage, despite the fact that he is the best player on the Astros. Bourn's slugging percentage last year was a meager .384. The major league average is around .415. Bourn's slugging percentage is low for two reasons: 1. People say that a walk is just as good as a hit. Slugging percentage does not credit Bourn for having such a high walk rate last year. 2. Bourn doesn't have a lot of power. He played in 157 games last year and only got 3 homers. He also lacks the power to frequently drive the ball to the wall and get a double or a triple. So almost every hit he got last year was a single. But the thing is Bourn got 131 singles last year, but he also stole 61 bases. A single and a stolen base is just as good as a double. If you treat every stolen base as a double, then more than half of Bourn's hits are for extra bases, which would give him an extremely high slugging percentage. So the fact that stolen bases and a high walk rate isn't factored into the equation of slugging percentage makes a flawed statistic.

On-base percentage is exactly what it sounds like: the percentage of the time a player gets on base (excluding reaching on an error). Personally, I think On-base percentage is a better stat than batting average. A walk is just as good as a hit and walks are included in On-base percentage. But, On-base percentage is clearly not a perfect measure of a player's production because a single is treated the same way homer is treated; even though a homer is more valuable than a single.

OPS is On-base plus Slugging. It is simply adding on-base percentage to slugging percentage. The main issue with OPS is the fact that it is a random combination of the two stats. A player's slugging percentage happens to almost always be higher than his on-base percentage. In a way, it's like adding batting average and homeruns together. If a player has 40 homeruns and a .230 bating average, then if you add it together you get 40.230. Compared to a player with 39 homers and a .360 batting average, the player with more homers wins, simply because the homers are weighted more heavily than the batting average. To a lesser extent, the same thing happens in OPS. Last year, the major league average OBP was .331, while the slugging percentage was about .416.

I decided that I wanted to create a stat that is better than these. A stat that combines everything that makes a player offensively efficient. I wanted to beat the conventional stats in baseball

So what is the stat that I created? (TB+BB+(SB-CS))/(PA-SH-SF-HBP)=OER. For those who don't know all the abbreviations, BB stands for walks, CS stands for the amount of times caught stealing a base, PA stands for plate appearances (which, unlike at-bats, includes bunts, sacrifice flies, times hit by a pitch, and walks), SH stands for sacrifice hits (meaning bunts), SF stands for sacrifice flies, and HBP stands for the amount of times hit by a pitch. As of May 25, this is everyone's numbers under the statistic, and every team.
So how accurate is the stat? Well, I decided to rank the teams offensively based on my stat and see how well it corresponds to the amount of runs that team has scored, and then add the difference to the total. For example, the Diamondbacks are 1st in my stat. They are 4th in total runs scored on the season. 4-1=3, so that's 3 points of error for my stat. I added the amount of points for all teams, and my stat got 72 points overall. That means there were 72 points of error for my stats I then compared my stat to OPS, OBP, BA, and SLG, by figuring out all of their point totals, and the stat with lowest amount of error points wins. Here are my results:

Fortunately, my stat won comfortably, beating BA 72 to 164, OBP 72 to 148, OPS 72 to 96, and SLG 72 to 88. I was happy that OER won comfortably, but I was also happy to see OBP beat batting average. It proves that a walk is just as good as a hit and that it was a good idea to factor walks into the equation.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

What this blog is about

I am Mackenzie Pantoja, 13 year old sports fanatic. When you read this blog, most of the posts will be about football. I am a huge draft fanatic, and every week during college football season you can be sure to see me write about the players I saw. Our family has three Tivo's, so I can watch about 17 games a week. Be sure to check it out!