Because of the rise of the 3-4 at the NFL level in recent years, 2011 has become the draft of the 3-4 end. Right now, if Juniors Marcell Dareus and DaQuan Bowers leave for the draft, were looking at about 4 to 5 3-4 defensive end prospects being drafted in the first round of next year's draft (Adrian Clayborn, Bowers, Cameron Heyward, Dareus, and Bailey, in order of personal preference. Also, though it is considered unlikely right now, I am also pretty high on Iowa defensive tackle Christian Ballard, I think that he is well suited for the 3-4, and I think his stock may rise into first round consideration by the end of the year). It could result in a major change in the way the draft works for years to come. But onto the scouting report:
Miami defensive end Allen Bailey has been and always will be blessed with physical tools. His body bears lots of resemblance to Bears defensive end Julius Peppers; good height, ideal bulk for the 3-4 end position, outstanding athleticism and strength. That Peppers comparison is exciting. Among all of the ends mentioned in the previous paragraph, Bailey probably is second only to Bowers in terms of pure physical ability.
Bailey's weaknesses outnumber his strengths. Bailey has never been able to put up 5th round quality stats in his career at Miami; though he is a solid pass rusher statistically, I didn't think that I had ever scouted a single defensive lineman who couldn't accumulate over 32 tackles during last season without having some kind of injury. I decided to check that out, so I looked at all the linemen I scouted last year; 1 player had fewer tackles (Terrence Cody, with 28) and two others each accumulated 32 tackles (Geno Atkins and Gerald McCoy. That's why I always said McCoy was overrated). To have all of those physical gifts and be that horrible statistically is inexcusable. And I'd say it strongly suggests a lot about Bailey. However, in 2010, he actually had a moderately impressive season, getting 46 tackles and seven sacks, and I stopped worrying about his numbers.
Bailey has a bit of a hot and cold motor. At times, he will use his strength to drive linemen back like a bear. And at other times he'll get manhandled badly. His on field intensity is mediocre, and he puts up a greater effort in bigger games than he does in smaller games. But I have definitely seen worse.
Bailey definitely isn't a very instinctive lineman. He regularly overcommits on play actions, misdirections, and screen passes, which is part of the reason his tackle production is so awful. But he does takes solid angles to the ball carrier, and he is pretty patient for ball carriers to come his way.
Bailey is pretty good at deflecting passes, but he has very poor quickness of the ball, and he struggles to keep his pads low on all plays. Bailey's lack of anticipation of the snap puts him in poor positions to start every play, which really hinders his production.
Bailey does not provide a wide array of pass rush moves. He only uses the bull rush; he doesn't really use the speed rush effectively, and he has very little development in the swim move, rip move, and spin move. His strength is so staggering that he can get by with just the bull rush at the college level, but I don't see him being successful as a pass rusher at the NFL level without some use of the swim and rip moves.
Here are some highlights of Bailey
Allen Bailey vs. Wake Forest
Allen Bailey vs. Florida State
Allen Bailey vs. Georgia Tech
Overall, I think that Bailey is an overrated prospect because of his average of production and mediocre effort. It seems like a lot of players who have character concerns always slide down farther in the draft than expected. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened to Bailey.
NFL Comparison: Jamaal Anderson (the defensive end, not the running back) of the Falcons. I know he definitely isn't a big named guy, but there is a whole lot of physical and statistical resemblance.