An NFL Draft Blog

An NFL Draft Blog
Formerly known as the player rater.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Patrick Peterson- 2011 Draft Scouting Report

Next year, 4 or 5 corners have a shot at being a first round pick. I actually haven't got any game film on Virginia's Ras-I-Dowling, but all of the others are really overrated. LSU corner Patrick Peterson just might be the most overrated player at any position in this year's draft class.

Peterson is one of the most physically gifted corners I have ever seen. He is really tall (6'1), he has a whole lot of bulk (maybe even too much at 212lbs), and he is extremely fast (4.42 40 yard dash). He is an extremely fluid athlete, and he possesses natural change of direction skills that allow him to cover even the best of route runners. He also is has extremely long arms that allow him to deflect a lot of passes. He also is a very good tackler and solid run stopper.

Peterson has natural ball skills. He has excellent hands, long arms and unbelievable athleticism that allows him to tip almost any pass that comes in his direction. He also possesses good upper body strength for ripping passes out of receivers hands.

In 2010, Peterson has done a great job of returning kicks and punts. It looks like, as a kick and punt returner he is near Josh Cribbs' level: 165 yards on 10 punt returns for an astounding 16.5 yards per return (3rd in the FBS of guys with 7 returns), and 151 yards on 5 returns for a great 30.2 yards per return (6th in the FBS of guys with 5 returns). It's a nice bit of versatility to his game.

Peterson plays with above average on field intensity. He is a somewhat physical tackler, he has solid strength, and he has decent mental toughness. But oddly, he showed up at LSU's spring practice this offseason at 222lbs. That is probably a little too much weight for a corner.

Peterson's main issue is a complete lack of cover skills. He possesses pretty bad route recognition skills. He is very bad at anticipating slants routes, and he frequently loses focus on his man. He often gives receivers too much of a cushion and he is very susceptible to being fooled by head fakes and breaks in routes.

I am sure many of my readers read the validity in "yards allowed," article I wrote in mid-December. If you are reading this and you haven't read that article, don't write me off quite yet. Read the article. The statistic appears valid, and it really makes Patrick Peterson look bad. I know people are going to doubt the statistic, and say that corners too often line up on one side of the field, but try to remember the fact that coaches are going to want a real dominant corner on a real dominant player.  For example, if you are Urban Meyer (or, I guess Will Muschamp), and you are facing Georgia, you are going to want a corner as dominant as Janoris Jenkins matched up against A.J. Green as much as possible, and your second corner, sophomore Jeremy Brown, matched up against Green as little as possible. If you watched the Florida Georgia game closely, you would clearly see that Jenkins never leaves Green. He gets and interception off of him and holds him to a mere 42 yards, his worst game of the season. Without watching the game, should I even have to ask my readers if they are going to contest the idea that Jeremy Brown played a large role in stopping Green? I don't think so. It was clear that Jenkins was matched up against Green, and using that game in Jenkins' favor is completely valid. Now, if a coach has two corners that are practically interchangeable, such as Virginia's Ras-I Dowling and Chase Minnifield, then the statistic is invalid. Each corner will match up against the number one receiver at different parts of the game. But let's be honest; take the Alabama LSU game for example. Les Miles would eat grass before he let true sophomore Morris Claiborne line up against Julio Jones when he has Patrick Peterson on the roster (okay, that was a bad example). But still, there is no way he would let Claiborne line up against Jones if he can make Jones line up against Peterson. Julio Jones got 89 yards in the game. For the sake of proving my point, after I wrote this article, I watched the game. I used KC Joyner's sabermetrics of figuring how many yards Peterson allowed and how many yards he gave up per throw, and watched every ball Greg McElroy threw. Julio Jones had 6 of his 9 catches against Peterson (he had 10 catches on the game, but one was while Peterson was on the sideline, taking a one play breather), for 52 yards, and Peterson also allowed a 37 catch to Marquis Maze in the game (Technically, the catch didn't count. Peterson did a blatant pass interference on Maze, pulling his right arm around his back, and the officials ruled he made a one-handed catch, but when the play was reviewed, they ruled it wasn't a catch. Peterson still got a 15 yard pass interference penalty called against him, but at the NFL level, that's a 37 yard penalty. Considering I'm evaluating him for the NFL, I'm considering that a 37 yard catch). So let's add that up; 37 yards for Maze, 52 for Jones... that's 89 yards! Coincidentally, the exact number the stat counted against him. That stat isn't usually going to be that perfect, but I think it is good enough to be considered valid. Not only did he allow 89 yards, but McElroy also completed 7/9 passes he threw toward Peterson for those 89 yards (and one of the misses was a pretty bad throw to Jones). Peterson allowed 9.9 yards per ball thrown toward him. Greg McElroy got 9.35 yards per ball he threw on the season. His quarterback rating against Peterson? 144.9. His quarterback rating during the season? 114.2. Not good for Peterson. Miles did try to make sure that Peterson was lined up against Jones as much as possible. Jones still got yards. It was Peterson's fault that he did.

Peterson is consistently out of position in coverage. He lacks instincts, and sometimes it seems like he just doesn't know plays. He is usually overaggressive in coverage and he struggles to commit to his zone in pass plays and play actions. He also commits a whole lot of pass interference penalties after he gets beat.

Overall, when I think of Peterson, I think of a corner who can't cover. He really has a lot of flaws in his coverage skills that will hinder his production in the NFL. I really don't care how physically gifted he is; if he doesn't produce, he's worthless.

NFL Comparison: Carlos Rogers
Grade: 92
Projection: 98

Updated Scouting Report(s): Terrance Toliver

36 comments:

  1. Your command of the English language far outweighs your football analysis if you think Patrick Peterson is a "corner who can't cover." I would call you sophomoric, if only you were old enough.

    John Everett Byrd
    john.byrd89@yahoo.com

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  2. So your saying I am a good writer?

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  3. like I said before....LOL

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  4. Watch the players perform, before you make statements based on your favorites and their position rivals. Your assesment of Peterson was obviously made without true game tape and live veiwing of his feild work, i.e. television, or live game appereances. ...Prince is good also, 1a. and 1b.

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  5. Like I said before? Dude, who are you?

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  6. Anonymous,

    I watch the games. Our family has three TiVo's, so I see about 20 games a week. And I take notes on them. If you want proof, here it is. https://docs.google.com/View?id=dcfcj6hx_0gfm725c5

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  7. Anonymous

    I'll give this; I might have been a little harsh on Amukamara. He's is a solid player, but his physical tools are mediocre at best for a guy who will likely be a mid first round pick, and his production isn't quite amazing enough to make up for his physical tools.

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  8. "Lack of production," for a cornerback, that statement alone is shows that you need to work on you scouting...the best corners WILL HAVE THE LEAST production in the secondary...BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT BEING THORWN AT AS OFTEN...they are taking their assignments out of the current play. Study the plays, and notice who's being challenged when there are man 2 man plays and zero blitz calls being made.
    If Peterson and Prince were challeged as often as the across the feild counter parts they'd have 7-9 interception a season. It's funny how every NFL scout that speaks about Prince and loves his hips and burst, yet you say that he lacks just that. I see that you have gone back and changed some of the things that you write for the blog (Peterson). Just keep on doing your thing, your assesment of cornerbacks will become better with time. GOOD WORK!

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  9. That's not what I really meant when I said "production". I didn't mean statistical production. I really did mean how well a corner produces on the field. I'll admit that Amukamara and Peterson aren't thrown at very often, but their success rate at stopping passes thrown in their direction is mediocre at best, and Peterson also has the tendency to give up much longer completions and do pass interferences when he does get beat. However, if you look at the link in one of the comments above, scroll down to Nebraska, and look at Amukamara under "add this to scouting report," which is new notes, you will notice that I loved what I saw in Thursday's game. I haven't had a chance to update it yet, but you can expect some changes.

    Either way, I have seen much more dominant corners than the two of them through the scouting process. Only one team's leading receiver on the season got over 100 yards (the second most allowed was 60) in a game against Miami, which could be largely attributed to cornerback Brandon Harris. Virginia Tech's Rashad Carmichael didn't allow ANY receiver to get more than 70 yards on him during the season, and he even got 6 interception's on the side. Combine that with Carmichael's 4.39 40 yard dash, it sure sounds like Carmichael is the better prospect than either of them to me. Now, of course, that's not a definitive statistic, for a lot of corners will line up against No. 2 receivers depending on the play call, but if it means anything at all (which it does), Amukamara and Peterson (Peterson especially), aren't as good as Carmichael).

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  10. And to prove I really didn't mean statistical production, you may notice that Amukamara got 60 tackles last year, which is whole lot for an FBS corner. Peterson got 52, which is still above average for an FBS corner. If I meant statistical production, I would have said Amukamara and Peterson were very productive last year.

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  11. Rashad Carmichael goes up against far weaker competition than either Prince or P. Peterson. Also to note, Peterson maybe covering 3-4 first round wideouts in the SEC West alone. I've watched Carmichael and he takes horrible angles in pursuit, is a poor tackler, but has good ball skills. BUT, he is not on their level. With speaking of speed Peterson ran a 4.2 hand timed 40, and a 4.33 electronically timed 40 this off season he also recorded a 39" vertical leap, and 535 lb.squat...this means he is by far one of the most explosive young men in college football.

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  12. I think Rashard Carmichael is just short of the level of Peterson (and very underrated. I expect him to be a third round pick or so, but I think he deserves to be picked early in the second round) and well short of Amukamara's level (again, Amukamara has improved this season). But I like Brandon Harris a lot more than Peterson and about as much as Amukamara. Harris is a dominant player. You make a decent point regarding the ACC, but I have an issue with those 40 times you referenced. I always use nfldraftscout as a reference for 40 times.

    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=83210&draftyear=2012&genpos=CB

    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=64750&draftyear=2011&genpos=CB

    It isn't about his best time. It's about how good his average time is.

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  13. I figure that you were using another website for your scouting. Go to local news paper sites, they are more informed with CURRENT off season workout grades. Also Peterson's off season workout numbers have been stated in ESPN and during games throughout the year. For instance, Peterson has said that his playing weight right now us 207 lbs. Those scouting sites do not always keep up with the players as often as you would think.

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  14. Let's forget about that part of the debate. I did say that Peterson was one of the most physically gifted corners I have ever seen. We can move on. And besides, some of the newspapers seem to exaggerate a player's 40 time to make the article seem more interesting. See: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/wac/2010-08-18-preview-nevada-dontay-moch_N.htm
    That probably isn't real. And if the most famous newspaper in the country exaggerates 40 times, than almost any newspaper would. Regarding what announcers have said, I usually mute the TV and listen to music when I watch games. I never caught that.

    All I am saying is that last year, Peterson may have had the worst route recognition skills and discipline of any corner in the country last year. Now this year, he has improved. But not quite enough for me to give him a mid-first round grade

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  15. you proved my point....you're looking at national reports. Oh, and Peterson actuallu ran a 4.37 electronically, that was a typo by me.I bet you are basing peterson's route reconition on the Capitol One Bowl aren't you. The feild conditions were horrible, muddy fields equal advantage Offense, the wideouts know where they are going(right?)I just cannot believe that if you had honestly watched his sophmore year, you would have seen that when he was beat it mainly was in cover 2&3 or umbrella coverages, where he lost his designed safety help over the top. which means the QB beat the defense design. this year He's getting better Safety play in zone defenses, in mam2man its no contest, the dudes lights out...look at his opponents numbers against him...including last year. A cornerbacks production, is his opponents lack of production, period...and also last year he had 13 pass break ups, that's production, especially considering there was a lack of a pass rush, and that teams really threw his way during the season.

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  16. *rearly through his way* during the season...correction.

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  17. I'll admit, the Capital One bowl was one of 6 LSU games I saw last season and scouted him in. Though he dominated Florida, he was mediocre at best against Mississippi, Arkansas, and Alabama, and even though he left early against Georgia with an injury, it took him a quarter to allow a 27 yard catch to A.J. Green. And then of course, he did struggle in the Penn State game, but you do make a decent point about that joke of a field. And I make all of my opinions. I ONLY use nfldraftscout as a reference for 40 times, and I use ESPN to get stats. That is it.

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  18. I'll give you Ole Miss...he had one mental lapes at Arkansas and Bama...He was on point the entire game, Jones only had 3 receptions against him. one for a 1st down, and the refs robbed him of an int. on the sideline that was obviously a pick. Like I said, you aren't watching the tape young man. Julio Jones's big play came against a 2nd string cornerback that is now starting at FS this year, Peterson was out of the game on that play, otherwise Jones was a non factor in that game.

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  19. Green had his biggest caatches againt Chris Hawkins, not Peterson. He was held to to 4 catches, no big gains on # 7.

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  20. I don't get every single play down in my notes. I was scouting 7 guys on the LSU defense, 6 guys on the Alabama offense, 3 guys on the Arkansas offense. I am not going to get notes on every player on every play. I am not going to get notes on what happened on every play and who allowed each catch. But you saw the URL: https://docs.google.com/View?id=dcfcj6hx_0gfm725c5
    It's pretty obvious that I do take notes on the games. And Green did get a 27 yarder on Peterson before Peterson got hurt. (And yes, Green did dominate Hawkins. I couldn't believe the catch he made on Hawkins almost no time left.)

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  21. just went back to look at the tape...i saw one decent gain against Peterson, it didn't look like 27 yards..and it was a comeback route that he needed a push off to get open....Peterson still was with him. I think you have your games mixed up he went out in the bama game, not georgia. Green rates higher than Jones, he tops Jones in every category except strength...Jones is more the posession type...Green runs a 4.36

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  22. First of all, where did you get the tape? I can only see what is aired on TV. I get about 20 games a week, but I'd love to get another source. And I am a little confused. I never said I didn't like Green. If you look at the scouting reports I wrote on Green and Jones, it would be obvious I said that.

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  23. no in your reports you said green would be a great posession guy

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  24. Where did I say that?

    "he simply showcases natural change of direction skills, making him very shifty and tough to tackle"

    "He has simply outstanding speed and shiftiness that allows to score a touchdown on any play that he touches the ball. He does a good job of using head fakes and natural change of direction skills to get past defenders with the ball in his hands"

    "He also uses his size well to power through smaller defenders and create even more yards after the catch"

    "Green does a good job of using head fakes and his change of direction skills to create yards after the catch"

    I mean, come on. I would be an idiot if I said a guy with a 16.4 career yards per catch wasn't a big play threat.

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  25. All you have to so is take out the "can't cover" part

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  26. I'm glad your assessment of Peterson involved one game. His worst game of the year I might add against one of the best receivers in the country in Julio Jones. I'am a student at LSU and have watched Peterson since he arrived at LSU. He is one of the most elite corners to come out of football in a long time and you can't take that away from him. All of these other corners that you have mentioned have played in far easier conferences than Peterson and haven't matched up against the competition that Peterson has since he has been at LSU. His upside is not only shown through stats. QB's never throw his way that's why his stats aren't through the roof and I don't even need to mention what he brought to our special teams.

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  27. First of all, I am not going to deny what he did for your special teams. He was fantastic as a kick returner. Secondly, I didn't judge him by his stats. The stats are actually above average. I realize that. He makes a fair amount of tackles and gets some picks too. Check out the validity in yards allowed article. How about Janoris Jenkins? He is in the SEC, and number one receivers couldn't get a yard against Florida because of Jenkins. Be honest, how come every number one receiver seems to get solid yardage against LSU? Because of Peterson! And just look how valid that stat appeared in the article.

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  28. So, do you think Janoris Jenkins will be drafted ahead of P. Peterson? I haven't seen any mock drafts that predict this. I would think the pro scouts will look at all of the footage of both, like you did, and pick the better player. I doubt any team will pick him in the top 10 based solely on potential. I guess we'll see in a few months.

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  29. I didn't say that. I think Peterson is very overrated, but I am a minority opinion, to say the least. I see Peterson being a top 5 pick, Jenkins in the mid first round.

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  30. You are a talented young writer, but your scouting abilities leave a lot to be desired - although admirable for a 14 year old. As a person who has observed P Perterson on a weekly basis, and who has had a heartbeat long enough to see media proclaimed 'shut down' CB's, I can tell you that PP is a phenom as all NFL scouts have stated. Don't get ahead of yourself buddy - the NFL scouts earn their money for a reason. Do your best to learn from them and perhaps you will achieve their status when you get older.

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  31. Thanks. I realize a lot of people are going to disagree with me on the subject of Peterson, call me "sophomoric, if only you were old enough," etc. I appreciate the fact you said I was a good writer, and that I was an "admirable," scout considering I am 14. But the one rebuttal I will offer: read the validity in yards allowed article. Peterson didn't appear to be very good in the statistic, but the statistic appeared to be valid.

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  32. I think something that would help prove your point about yards allowed would be to apply it to a few known cases... that is find some high draft pick corners in drafts from the past couple of years (Joe Haden comes to mind) and see if that stat stands up to how they have done in their first couple of years in the NFL. You should be able to get some kind of correlation if it is an important factor.

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  33. By the way... you are an excellent writer and have a lot of great points. I can't believe you are 14. Keep up the good work. Your future is bright.

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  34. Dude, your are creating a monster...lol You are one of those "against the hype" people aren't you. for instance, your are adding up 37 and 52 yards against Maze and Jones; a pass interfernce in college FB is 15 yards not the length of the pass so thats 22 YARDS!+52= 74 yards. If you look at NFL caliber reciever averages most of the All-time greats DO NOT average 100 yards reciving a game for a career, only greats such as Jerry Rice and Don Hudson at points in their Pro Career's have had that distinction. Anyway You talking up Janoris Jenkins now I see 1st it was Harris, and the Virginia corner...Now Jenkins, I guess Brandon Harris has let you down? Well did you see how every big catch that LSU made against Florida was agianst Jenkins Terrence Toliver ate his lunch (oh and Jenkins lunch two)It was probably 2nd best performance of the season. Look up your yards against stat on that one. My point is that EVERY CORNER Pro or College has BAD GAMES sometimes against the great WR's sometimes against the average ones. their overall performances throughout the year is how they are measured, you just need to look at that as your measuring stick, and stop trying to be "the against the grain young guy", because that makes you seem like you don't know what you are talking about.

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  35. Yeah, if you're going to talk about Peterson's performance about Julio Jones from this year, you might want to look up what he did to Jones in 2009.

    He nearly shut the guy out in one-on-one matchups.

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